Numbers are ABSOLUTES… unless they’re not

Math is NOT my strongest skill. If I was to take the ACT that Carson is taking in June, I have no doubt my score would be close to ZERO. I went through almost an entire semester of Accounting in college thinking that they were misspelling DEBT by constantly referring to it as DEBIT. I still carry the one when I add. So, now that you are aware of my lack of skills in this field… keep that in mind as you read my simplistic take on numbers.

I am of the belief because I’ve been told by many that are smarter than me that Math is an ABSOLUTE subject. Numbers don’t lie. In our current state of lockdown or relaxed lockdown or freedom to move about with restrictions, numbers have played the role of decision maker. We were told 1-2 million people would die. We were told that our healthcare system would be overrun by patients (>100% occupancy) if we continued to live life normally and get near eachother. Hospitals did’t have the capability to care for the people that would absolutely be infected by this virus. They ceased all elective procedures which is the primary way a hospital pays it’s bills. And then they all stood there in their PPE and waited. Some hospitals in NYC, NOLA, NJ, MI were getting full. On the other hand, hospitals here in Memphis & Mississippi and many other cities across the US had dust balls rolling down their hallways. A hospital located in Oxford, MS has had a 30% occupancy rate for a month. Many were forced to furlough health care workers because they didn’t need them and they couldn’t afford to pay them. The 2 million # was based on us doing NOTHING to stop it, every other number & every percentage since then was based on us doing SOMETHING. So, in my simplistic math mind…. >100% was wrong.

Now lets talk about the ventilators. The ones that every hospital had to have in order to take care of the sickest patients. We were told we need 5 million+ ventilators. We only have approximately 120,000. Oh my… where will we get those? Companies that make car parts stepped up and started cranking them out. So instead of a new transmission, GM is going to make me a ventilator which seems like a much better use of their manufacturing skills. One of those items could help me drive around the countryside while the other could keep my heart and lungs working. I’m all in… build them! The new ventilators were sent to the states to meet the needs they “thought” they would have. In every single instance of a Governor giving a number of what they “thought ” they needed… they were off. Way off! So, now we have a SURPLUS & we are sending those ventilators to other countries to use. My guess is that some will go unused in those countries as well. Again… the numbers were wrong.

Then there’s the old Flatten the Curve, Flatten the Curve….. well that was a bunch of bunk. First of all their “Curves” were based on stats from Neil Ferguson & his Imperial Model. This model has turned out to be complete rubbish. In order to accurately use a statistical model, you have to be able to reproduce the exact results numerous times. This one won’t. The code used to design it has flaws. Then there’s the minor fact that the Ferguson dude who is primarily responsible for the stay at home strategy didn’t even stay at home himself! He was out cavorting with his lover and has since resigned his position. Obviously he didn’t even put faith in his Imperial Strategy that has us all mildewing in our homes. Secondly, the experts & media kept telling us we would become Italy. Mass deaths, people singing from balconies, over run funeral homes. WHAT? We were never going to be Italy… we have a completely different population density, average age and health care system. Why in the world would Italy be a good comparison other than it’s a country & they have Corona. The curves were wrong.

This whole thing has been a fiasco from the very beginning. Here are some facts that I believe to be true:

1. The Virus did not appear in December. It appeared last fall in Wuhan China. The WHO was telling everyone…no worries. It’s under control, it is not human to human transferred. No need for travel restrictions. Don’t eat a bat & you’ll be fine.
2. China LIED. They hid what they knew about this thing. They silenced Doctors that tried to issue warnings. They STOPPED all domestic travel from Wuhan China but ALLOWED INTERNATIONAL travel to continue. They have removed all US news reporters so we’ll never know what the heck is happening over there now. The number of people they claim to have died in China is absolute nonsense.
3. President Trump issued a travel ban prohibiting travelers from China but at the same time told the rest of the country… don’t worry. The virus is not deadly and it will be gone soon.
4. Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx live in a bubble. They give medical advice which I question the accuracy of at this point and they seem to have little regard to how that advice effects actual American families. Did they spend hours talking about the suicide rate, domestic abuse rate and stress related issues causing numerous deaths? That would be a no. Are those deaths irrelevant? As for the number of deaths, those numbers will always be inaccurate and a moving target. Due to CDC & Federal guidelines, “if a deceased patient had a chronic end stage condition.. .if Covid is positive or PRESUMED to be positive,” they count it as a Covid death. I’m not insinuating Drs are fraudulent in determining death (although some think that), but an increase in Federal Funds are tied to a Covid death. No one should be naive enough to think that money doesn’t play a part in every aspect of health care delivery. Causes of death are also altered on death certificates for a variety of reasons sometimes months after the death. Today the number of deaths is 89,318. Also on Friday, Colorado recalculated their death numbers to REMOVE people from the count that didn’t actually die from Covid and reduced their number by 272 meaning 878 died, not 1150. Many other state health departments are doing the same thing after taking a lot of heat for reporting incorrect numbers. So the total number of deaths is WRONG.
5. Then there’s the whole nursing home fiasco. We completely limited access to those so no more visiting Grandma. BUT… the state that has had the MOST nursing home deaths issued a mandate in March from Governor Cuomo REQUIRING nursing homes to take patients that had Covid. They were NOT ALLOWED to deny them readmission. Basically they kept people from visiting Grandma but they were cool with letting Eloise who just came from the hospital and has Covid sharing a room with Gertrude. Now we’ve got RAMPANT exposure in a closed facility with our most vulnerable folks. You know, the ones that we set out to protect in the 1st place. NY has had 3 times the number of deaths in nursing homes than Florida has had in the entire state. WHAT A MESS!
6. 35 million Americans are now unemployed. THAT number .. I believe. At this point, I think anyone that is elderly, scared or has a compromised immune system should stay home. Groceries/necessities can be delivered. Heck you can even have a margarita delivered to your door. If you are willing & able you should be allowed to go back to work so you can pay bills and generate tax dollars. Goodness knows the Government needs them to pay for this fiasco. Wash your hands, put on your mask and go. I will also encourage you to take note of who did this to you. When election time rolls around, don’t focus on Tyrant Donald or Dementia Joe…. Washington DC did not mandate that you stay home nor did they remove those mandates. Your day to day existence thoughout this ordeal was controlled by your Governor and your Mayor.

I’m not disputing that the virus is deadly or that taking action to stop it was unnecessary. I do believe that the half baked way in which this strategy was determined & the numbers they used are a gigantic blunder. The rules & guidelines are random and the cure is causing a 2nd disaster in the country. The numbers don’t add up. They didn’t in the beginning and they certainly don’t now. But what do I know, I’m terrible at math.